Monday, February 13, 2006

Public Opinion

Public opinion is not always right, and being in the mainstream is not always indicative that one is on the right side of an issue. Still, one way to measure the relative health of a functioning democracy is how closely policy correlates with the general public’s opinions on a spectrum of issues.

In America, public opinion has been so effectively marginalized that very popular opinions shared by a large majority of Americans are regularly derided and considered unheard of or impractical. This is true in our media and especially true in our political establishment. It is politically sacrilegious to suggest American democracy is failing, we are supposed to be the beacon of democracy to the world and it follows that we are the most democratic nation ever. In reality, we have a system of oligarchic ratification with candidates that have very narrow differences. There is a wider gulf between their policies and the public's than with each other. Why is this? I think the answer is pretty straightforward, our politicians answer to different interests.

Here are several issues and the public’s opinion on them. I contend that these are ideas and opinions you hear very few politicians or media elites agreeing with. (Unfortunately I do not have the time to do responsible and thorough research to dig up a lot of quotes to illustrate what media & political people say on these items.)

International Law
Under this heading I include several international bodies and agreements. I believe these should be the channels by which nations resolve disputes from trade issues, sanctions, and the use of force (war). I believe in these institutions because without them you are left with “might makes right” where the strongest nations can impose their will based on the size of their military or economy. Without these imperfect institutions it would be a dictatorship of the world. And there is no arguing that they are flawed institutions to varying degrees, as all human organizations are. But they are best of the bad ideas.

Relevant bodies include the International Criminal Court, U.N., Security Council, etc.


  • International Criminal Court
    Most Americans (69%) favor U.S. participation in the ICC. The Bush administration does not, even going as far as to undermine the trial of Slobadon Milosevic. Many Republicans (50%) believe incorrectly that Bush supports the Court. [1]

    83% of Americans believe we should try suspected terrorists in the ICC rather than holding our own private military tribunals. [2]


  • United Nations
    68% of Americans are in favor of working through the UN to accomplish foreign policy goals rather than unilateralism. Only 25% believe the US should act on its own. [3]

    Another poll found that 87% of Americans believe the U.S. should work through the U.N. to strengthen international law.

    The same poll found that large majorities (60-84%) favored going through the UN Security Council to authorize the use of force in a variety of circumstances. One issue in the Iraq war is the neocon assertion that the U.S. can use force whenever it wants, without getting a “permission slip.” Neoconservative icon Michael Ledeen believes that "every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business," logic well understood by schoolyard bullies and mafia dons. A slim majority (53%) believes a country can go to war in the case of imminent attack from another country, a scenario provided for under UN article 51. Only 17% feel the same way if there is evidence that the other country is acquiring WMDs but not threatening to use them.

    66% of Americans agree that the U.S. should have to go along with the UN even when it disagrees. 59% believe we should get rid of the UN veto entirely. 57% believe we should unconditionally comply with World Court decisions. [4]

    59% of Americans want a more powerful UN in world affairs. 70% want to expand the number of permanent members (and vetos). 57% want to give the Security Council the power to override the veto. [5]


  • Treaties
    Americans strongly support international treaties. They favor (87%) non proliferation treaties, (80%) land mine bans, the ICC (76%) and Kyoto (71%) (more on this below in the Environment Section). [6]

    (The U.S. has been exceptionally dishonest when it comes to nuclear nonproliferation, a topic discussed previously, here.)


The Environment
I believe protecting the environment is very important, more so than short term economic considerations. If strict environmental laws hurt people working in an industry then we should offer help to those people who are hurt by those laws until they can find work elsewhere or get retrained. We should socialize those transition costs until the market adapts. The alternative, doing nothing, threatens our long term survival. One of the more relevant international treaties is Kyoto, which about 70% of the U.S. population supports. Many of Bush’s supporters mistakenly believe he supports Kyoto. Over 90% of the public agrees that environmental protections should be included in trade agreements. (More in the International Trade section.) [7]

86% of Americans think the US should be willing to limit green house gases. 76% of Americans favor taking steps to curb greenhouse gases even if it has economic costs. 83% favor legislation in the U.S. to curb greenhouse gas emissions. [8]

International Trade
Regarding NAFTA, Americans believe it has been bad for the U.S. economy (43%), the environment (48%), and U.S. jobs (56%). 60% believe it has made job security worse for Americans.

69% oppose giving large subsidies to agribusiness.

Over 90% of Americans believe trade agreements like CAFTA and NAFTA should guarantee working conditions and protections for the environment. CAFTA met strong resistance precisely because it lacked any language for those issues. One pro CAFTA legislator remarked that trade agreements were the wrong place to debate labor and environmental issues. [9]

Government Spending
Our government almost outspends the rest of the world combined on “national defense.” I believe we should reduce that spending and reallocatie it for social programs like health care and education. We can reduce our war spending and still have a strong military. The recent Bush budget does exactly the opposite of what I just described. He cut money across the board and reallocated it for military spending.

In one poll 65% of Americans supported the proposal to cut defense spending by 15% and redirect this money to education, healthcare, housing, and cutting the deficit. Majorities from 51-65% favored cutting spending on nuclear weapons and capabilities, land war capabilities, naval war capabilities, new types of destroyers/bombers/submarines, and the number of bombers/destroyers/submarines.

The same poll found that 69% believe “the US should only spend enough to protect itself and to join in efforts to protect countries together with allies or together through the UN.” (See also: support for internationalism.)

When informed of what the actual spending of the US defense budget, people were surprised.
The actual current level—excluding supplemental funding for the Iraq and Afghanistan operations—is over three times as much as all the US’s potential enemies combined.2 Only 7% of respondents thought US defense spending should be at this level. Instead, 71% thought the US should spend either “a bit more than its most powerful potential enemy” (41%) or “about as much as all of its potential enemies combined” (30%). Another 15% wanted to spend about twice as much as potential enemies…

In the current poll 71% thought US defense spending should be, at most, about as much as all of its potential enemies combined.”



Americans also underestimate how much foreign aid we give. They believed foreign aid is 20% of the budget and humanitarian aid is 10%. The actual spending is about 1% and 1.6%. The average response for what is appropriate is 15%. When informed of the actual spending Americans favored raising the amount spent. [10]

Another poll found that 65% of Americans would be willing to commit .7% of the GDP to foreign aid. The current Millenium Development Goal is .7. The U.S. is last among signatories for meeting this pledge. [11]

A clear majority, 60% or more depending on the poll, favors a national health care system. The U.S. has the most inefficient health care system in the free world. Significant segments of the U.S. population have health indices on par with third world countries. We spend more and get worse care per capita than any other first world country with nationalized health care. The usual knock on the idea is that nationalized health care will be more inefficient and raise our taxes; the evidence turns that objection inside out. 45 million Americans have no health insurance. Access to health care is considered a human right in most first world countries, as enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights – a document the U.S. has endorsed for over fifty years. It makes sense from both an economics and humanitarian perspective, which is perhaps why so many Americans favor it.

Conclusion
The U.S. population is a nation of people who favor law and international consensus. They want better safety nets at home and abroad in countries they do business with. They believe defense spending is out of control and our aid programs are miserly. Americans want a healthier environment and are willing to take an economic hit today to make sure the world is safe tomorrow. These are not ideas our politicians or media has an easy time endorsing or giving voice to, but that does not mean they define the mainstream.

Polls cited:
Disclaimer: Probably not in MLA format, but should be enough to get you there with google.
[1] Chicago Council on Foreign Relations; Program on International Policy Attitudes. Large Bipartisan Majority of Americans Favor Referring Darfur War Crime Cases to International Criminal Court. March 1, 2005.
[2] Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. Global Views 2004
[3] Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. 29 September 2005. Americans on Promoting Democracy
[4] ibid, see 2
[5] BBC. 23 Country Poll Finds Strong Support for Dramatic Changes at UN, and for Increased UN Power. 22 March 2005
[6] ibid, see 2
[7] ibid, see 2
[8] The American Public on International Issues. Americans on Climate Change: 2005. 5 July 2005
[9] ibid, see 2
Americans on CAFTA and US Trade Policy. 11 July 2005. The American Public on International Issues.
[10] American Public on International Issues. The Federal Budget: The Public’s Priorities. 7 March 2005.
[11] American Public on International Issues. Americans on Addressing World Poverty. 30 June 2005.

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